NEW YORK
METSNYM
81-77 | Road
8
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
89-69 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shota Imanaga
#18 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | None-None | 2.06 | -- | 5.1 | 11 |
| Shota Imanaga | None-None | 3.73 | -- | 5.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.06 Ldr
ERA
3.73
--
WHIP
--
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
11 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
METS
45%
CUBS
55%
METS
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
NYM By 1-2 runs
17.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
11.9%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.2%
CHC By 3-4 runs
15.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
3.83
NEW YORK
Chicago
4.4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cubs
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cubs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
C
Sim
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 25, 2026
CHC @ NYM
4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
CHC @ NYM
10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026
CHC @ NYM
9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
NYM @ CHC
1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026
NYM @ CHC
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.705
▲
OPS
.374
204
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+12.0% more
Chicago: 8.9
vs
New York: 8.0
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.4% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+77.1% more
New York: 1.4
vs
Chicago: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
3.8
8
CHC Score
4.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 8.0
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.9
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 9.0
7.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 14.7
18.0 / 18.0
Walks
1.6 / 2.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
NYM
CHC
NYM
ML
58%
93-68
50%
79-80
51%
82-79
48%
76-83
ATS
61%
97-63-1
58%
93-66
47%
75-85-1
49%
78-81
TTL
52%
81-74-6
55%
80-66-13
46%
72-83-6
51%
74-72-13
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