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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

79-79  |  Road

9
FINAL
Thu, Sep 25 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

71-87  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Luinder Avila
STARTING PITCHER

Luinder Avila

#58 | SP
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luinder Avila None-None 0.71 -- 1.0 2
Sam Bachman None-None 6.52 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.71 Ldr ERA 6.52
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
55%
📊
ANGELS
45%
ROYALS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Los Angeles)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

47.2%

Angels Cover

52.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

KC By 1-2 runs

17.9%

KC By 3-4 runs

12.7%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.9%

LAA By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.96
KANSAS CITY
4.24
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 KC @ LAA 3 - 0
Aug 15, 2026 KC @ LAA 0 - 1
Aug 14, 2026 KC @ LAA 7 - 6
Apr 26, 2026 LAA @ KC 9 - 11
Apr 25, 2026 LAA @ KC 1 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.718 ▲
OPS
.679
170 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +52.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.4 vs Kansas City: 0.9
Walks (L5) +14.7% more
Los Angeles: 3.3 vs Kansas City: 2.9
Errors (L5) +47.2% more
Kansas City: 1.1 vs Los Angeles: 0.6
Hits (L5) +30.5% more
Kansas City: 8.8 vs Los Angeles: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.0 9
LAA Score 4.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.1 / 8.8 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.9 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 7.4 9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 14.1 16.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.9 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
KC
LAA
KC
ML
59% 96-66
55% 89-72
55% 89-73
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-65
57% 91-70
51% 82-80
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 83-74-5
58% 90-64-7
52% 82-75-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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