Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bengals @ Broncos CIN @ DEN

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

2-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Sep 29 • 8:15 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

1-2  |  Home

28
Key Game
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
@
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
Player
Ryan Rehkow None-None
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
BENGALS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (Denver)
BengalsCIN (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

41.1%

Broncos Cover

58.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

CIN By 1-6 points

15.2%

CIN By 7-13 points

12.8%

DEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
22.04
CINCINNATI
25.19
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
CINCINNATI
24
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.2
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 29, 2025 CIN @ DEN 3 - 28
Dec 28, 2024 DEN @ CIN 24 - 30
Dec 19, 2021 CIN @ DEN 15 - 10
Dec 2, 2018 DEN @ CIN 24 - 10
Nov 19, 2017 CIN @ DEN 20 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +92.0% more
Denver: 120.0 vs Cincinnati: 62.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +26.5% more
Denver: 5.5 vs Cincinnati: 4.3
Total Yards (L5) +13.1% more
Denver: 303.5 vs Cincinnati: 268.4
Turnovers (L5) +66.4% more
Cincinnati: 2.8 vs Denver: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 22.0 3
DEN Score 25.2 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 18.3 29.0 / 9.0
Net Passing Yards 183.5 / 205.9 326.0 / 106.0
Rushing Yards 120.0 / 62.5 186.0 / 53.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 303.5 / 268.4 512.0 / 159.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.8 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 4.3 6.4 / 3.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
CIN
DEN
CIN
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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