Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Steelers MIN @ PIT

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

2-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 9:30 AM ET
Croke Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

2-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
James Pierre
KEY GAME

James Pierre

#23 | Cornerback
@
Cameron Heyward
KEY GAME

Cameron Heyward

#97 | Defensive Tackle
Player
James Pierre None-None
Cameron Heyward None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
0%
📊
STEELERS
100%
VIKINGS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Minnesota)
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

50.7%

Steelers Cover

49.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-6 points

16.5%

MIN By 7-13 points

15.6%

PIT By 1-6 points

16.4%

PIT By 7-13 points

15.2%

AI Model Projected Score
16.81
MINNESOTA
16.56
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
21
MINNESOTA
24
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vikings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vikings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.3
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 MIN @ PIT 21 - 24
Dec 9, 2021 PIT @ MIN 28 - 36
Sep 17, 2017 MIN @ PIT 9 - 26
Sep 29, 2013 PIT @ MIN 27 - 34
Oct 25, 2009 MIN @ PIT 17 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.5% more
Minnesota: 121.6 vs Pittsburgh: 71.1
Turnovers (L5) +21.1% more
Minnesota: 1.3 vs Pittsburgh: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +14.4% more
Minnesota: 292.0 vs Pittsburgh: 249.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.0% more
Minnesota: 5.2 vs Pittsburgh: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 16.8 21
PIT Score 16.6 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.0 / 17.6 19.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 178.7 / 170.4 182.0 / 302.0
Rushing Yards 71.1 / 121.6 131.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 249.9 / 292.0 313.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.6 / 5.2 5.9 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIN
PIT
MIN
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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