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PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

3-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

3-0  |  Home

25
Key Game
Tank Bigsby
KEY GAME

Tank Bigsby

#8 | Running Back
@
Riley Dixon
KEY GAME

Riley Dixon

#9 | Punter
Player
Tank Bigsby None-None
Riley Dixon None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
EAGLES --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Tampa Bay)
EaglesPHI (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

27.3%

Buccaneers Cover

72.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

PHI By 1-6 points

11.8%

PHI By 7-13 points

8.4%

TB By 1-6 points

15.9%

TB By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
18.35
PHILADELPHIA
26.82
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
24
PHILADELPHIA
27
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 PHI @ TB 31 - 25
Sep 29, 2024 PHI @ TB 16 - 33
Jan 15, 2024 PHI @ TB 9 - 32
Sep 25, 2023 PHI @ TB 25 - 11
Jan 16, 2022 PHI @ TB 15 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.4% more
Tampa Bay: 211.7 vs Philadelphia: 163.5
Total Yards (L5) +17.9% more
Tampa Bay: 350.0 vs Philadelphia: 296.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +16.9% more
Tampa Bay: 5.5 vs Philadelphia: 4.7
First Downs (L5) +9.6% more
Tampa Bay: 21.0 vs Philadelphia: 19.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 18.4 31
TB Score 26.8 25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 19.2 18.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 211.7 / 163.5 272.0 / 112.0
Rushing Yards 138.4 / 133.4 104.0 / 88.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.23 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 350.0 / 296.9 376.0 / 200.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 4.7 5.5 / 3.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
PHI
TB
PHI
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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