Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chargers @ Giants LAC @ NYG

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

3-0  |  Road

18
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 1:00 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

0-3  |  Home

21
Key Game
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
@
Gunner Olszewski
KEY GAME

Gunner Olszewski

#80 | Wide Receiver
Player
JK Scott None-None
Gunner Olszewski None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHARGERS
100%
📊
GIANTS
0%
CHARGERS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (New York)
ChargersLAC (-3.5) 0 GiantsNYG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chargers Cover

36.3%

Giants Cover

63.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYG -4.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYG)

LAC By 1-6 points

14.2%

LAC By 7-13 points

11.3%

NYG By 1-6 points

16.9%

NYG By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24.57
LOS ANGELES
29.49
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
20
LOS ANGELES
27
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.9
D
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 54.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 LAC @ NYG 18 - 21
Dec 12, 2021 NYG @ LAC 21 - 37
Oct 8, 2017 LAC @ NYG 27 - 22
Dec 8, 2013 NYG @ LAC 14 - 37
Nov 8, 2009 LAC @ NYG 21 - 20
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +19.8% more
Los Angeles: 22.4 vs New York: 17.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.4 vs New York: 0.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Los Angeles: 261.4 vs New York: 225.3
Turnovers (L5) +10.2% more
Los Angeles: 1.4 vs New York: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAC Score 24.6 18
NYG Score 29.5 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 22.4 20.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 225.3 / 261.4 89.0 / 186.0
Rushing Yards 98.6 / 94.8 161.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 323.9 / 356.2 250.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.4 3.6 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
NYG
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYG
LAC
NYG
LAC
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
0% 0-3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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