Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Patriots CAR @ NE

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

1-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

1-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
Ryan Fitzgerald
KEY GAME

Ryan Fitzgerald

#10 | Place kicker
@
Bryce Baringer
KEY GAME

Bryce Baringer

#17 | Punter
Player
Ryan Fitzgerald None-None
Bryce Baringer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
PANTHERS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
29.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.1
NEW ENGLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.1 points (New England)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 PatriotsNE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

21.4%

Patriots Cover

78.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NE -11.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NE)

CAR By 1-6 points

9.9%

CAR By 7-13 points

6.5%

NE By 1-6 points

14.7%

NE By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
9.36
CAROLINA
20.45
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
17
CAROLINA
24
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.1
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 29.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 CAR @ NE 13 - 42
Nov 7, 2021 NE @ CAR 24 - 6
Oct 1, 2017 CAR @ NE 33 - 30
Nov 18, 2013 NE @ CAR 20 - 24
Dec 13, 2009 CAR @ NE 10 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +59.3% more
New England: 2.2 vs Carolina: 1.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +21.7% more
New England: 228.5 vs Carolina: 187.8
Total Yards (L5) +16.1% more
New England: 335.1 vs Carolina: 288.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.4% more
New England: 5.3 vs Carolina: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 9.4 13
NE Score 20.5 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 18.8 16.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 228.5 / 187.8 203.0 / 197.0
Rushing Yards 106.6 / 100.8 104.0 / 129.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 335.1 / 288.6 307.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 4.6 6.4 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
CAR
NE
CAR
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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