Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Lions CLE @ DET

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

1-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

2-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Corey Bojorquez None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
BROWNS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Detroit)
BrownsCLE (-3.5) 0 LionsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

38.3%

Lions Cover

61.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

CLE By 1-6 points

14.6%

CLE By 7-13 points

11.9%

DET By 1-6 points

16.9%

DET By 7-13 points

18.1%

AI Model Projected Score
17.95
CLEVELAND
22.13
DETROIT
Simulated Score
24
CLEVELAND
27
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 CLE @ DET 10 - 34
Nov 21, 2021 DET @ CLE 10 - 13
Nov 12, 2017 CLE @ DET 24 - 38
Oct 13, 2013 DET @ CLE 31 - 17
Nov 22, 2009 CLE @ DET 37 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +81.7% more
Detroit: 170.0 vs Cleveland: 93.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +57.0% more
Detroit: 6.7 vs Cleveland: 4.3
Total Yards (L5) +55.1% more
Detroit: 428.6 vs Cleveland: 276.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +41.5% more
Detroit: 258.7 vs Cleveland: 182.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 18.0 10
DET Score 22.1 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.9 / 17.0 16.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 258.7 / 182.8 168.0 / 170.0
Rushing Yards 170.0 / 93.5 109.0 / 79.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 428.6 / 276.3 277.0 / 249.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.9 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 6.7 / 4.3 4.9 / 3.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CLE
DET
CLE
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 2 hours, 9 minutes ago
Archie Manning's Enduring Influence: How the Patriarch Shaped Ar…
dallasnews 2 hours, 13 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 8 hours, 7 minutes ago
Cardinals Week 5 Injury Report: Jeremiyah Love Limited; Paris Jo…
yahoo 20 hours, 38 minutes ago
Brian Branch's Return to Practice Could Be the Spark Detroit's D…
yahoo 20 hours, 48 minutes ago