Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Bills NO @ BUF

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

0-3  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

3-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Khristian Boyd
KEY GAME

Khristian Boyd

#97 | Defensive Tackle
@
T.J. Sanders
KEY GAME

T.J. Sanders

#98 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Khristian Boyd None-None
T.J. Sanders None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
100%
📊
BILLS
0%
SAINTS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.9
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.9 points (Buffalo)
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

24.0%

Bills Cover

76.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -9.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

NO By 1-6 points

10.8%

NO By 7-13 points

7.4%

BUF By 1-6 points

15.3%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
11.15
NEW ORLEANS
21.02
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
20
NEW ORLEANS
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.9
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 NO @ BUF 19 - 31
Nov 25, 2021 BUF @ NO 31 - 6
Nov 12, 2017 NO @ BUF 47 - 10
Oct 27, 2013 BUF @ NO 17 - 35
Sep 27, 2009 NO @ BUF 27 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +75.2% more
Buffalo: 163.5 vs New Orleans: 93.3
Total Yards (L5) +33.2% more
Buffalo: 389.1 vs New Orleans: 292.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +32.4% more
Buffalo: 5.9 vs New Orleans: 4.5
First Downs (L5) +21.6% more
Buffalo: 24.0 vs New Orleans: 19.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 11.2 19
BUF Score 21.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 19.7 20.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 225.6 / 198.8 191.0 / 109.0
Rushing Yards 163.5 / 93.3 165.0 / 189.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.3 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 389.1 / 292.1 356.0 / 298.0
Turnovers 0.0 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 4.5 6.2 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
NO
BUF
NO
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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