Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Rams IND @ LAR

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

3-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 4:05 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

2-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
@
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
Player
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
Ethan Evans None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
COLTS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Los Angeles)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 RamsLAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

48.9%

Rams Cover

51.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAR -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)

IND By 1-6 points

16.3%

IND By 7-13 points

15.1%

LAR By 1-6 points

16.6%

LAR By 7-13 points

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
30.63
INDIANAPOLIS
31.03
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
24
INDIANAPOLIS
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 61.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 IND @ LAR 20 - 27
Oct 1, 2023 LAR @ IND 29 - 23
Sep 19, 2021 LAR @ IND 27 - 24
Sep 10, 2017 IND @ LAR 9 - 46
Nov 10, 2013 LAR @ IND 38 - 8
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.0 vs Indianapolis: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.2% more
Indianapolis: 157.6 vs Los Angeles: 127.3
First Downs (L5) +14.5% more
Indianapolis: 23.5 vs Los Angeles: 20.1
Total Yards (L5) +10.8% more
Indianapolis: 406.3 vs Los Angeles: 362.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 30.6 20
LAR Score 31.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 23.5 24.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 235.3 / 248.7 360.0 / 248.0
Rushing Yards 127.3 / 157.6 102.0 / 85.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 362.6 / 406.3 462.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.5 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 6.5 6.6 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
LAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAR
IND
LAR
IND
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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