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JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

2-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 4:05 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

3-0  |  Home

21
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Eddy Pineiro
KEY GAME

Eddy Pineiro

#18 | Place kicker
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Eddy Pineiro None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
49ERS
0%
JAGUARS --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (San Francisco)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 49ersSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

19.6%

49ers Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SF -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

JAX By 1-6 points

9.3%

JAX By 7-13 points

5.9%

SF By 1-6 points

14.2%

SF By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14.33
JACKSONVILLE
26.3
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
17
JACKSONVILLE
27
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 49ers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim 49ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 JAX @ SF 26 - 21
Nov 12, 2023 SF @ JAX 34 - 3
Nov 21, 2021 SF @ JAX 30 - 10
Dec 24, 2017 JAX @ SF 33 - 44
Oct 27, 2013 SF @ JAX 42 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.3% more
San Francisco: 278.1 vs Jacksonville: 215.1
First Downs (L5) +17.2% more
San Francisco: 21.8 vs Jacksonville: 18.6
Turnovers (L5) +15.0% more
San Francisco: 1.5 vs Jacksonville: 1.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.4% more
San Francisco: 5.7 vs Jacksonville: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 14.3 26
SF Score 26.3 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 18.6 22.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 278.1 / 215.1 306.0 / 174.0
Rushing Yards 90.4 / 120.0 83.0 / 151.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 368.4 / 335.1 389.0 / 325.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.3 4.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.1 6.2 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
SF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
JAX
SF
JAX
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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