Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bears @ Raiders CHI @ LV

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

1-2  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 4:25 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

1-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Cairo Santos
KEY GAME

Cairo Santos

#8 | Place kicker
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Cairo Santos None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
RAIDERS
100%
BEARS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Chicago)
BearsCHI (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

72.8%

Raiders Cover

27.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CHI -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

CHI By 1-6 points

15.9%

CHI By 7-13 points

19.6%

LV By 1-6 points

11.8%

LV By 7-13 points

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
23.94
CHICAGO
15.45
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
20
CHICAGO
24
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 CHI @ LV 25 - 24
Oct 22, 2023 LV @ CHI 12 - 30
Oct 10, 2021 CHI @ LV 20 - 9
Oct 6, 2019 CHI @ LV 21 - 24
Oct 4, 2015 LV @ CHI 20 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.4% more
Chicago: 102.6 vs Las Vegas: 78.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Chicago: 0.5 vs Las Vegas: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +8.9% more
Las Vegas: 1.1 vs Chicago: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 23.9 25
LV Score 15.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 18.1 17.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 237.6 / 222.7 117.0 / 202.0
Rushing Yards 78.5 / 102.6 240.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 316.1 / 325.3 357.0 / 271.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.0 4.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.4 6.9 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
LV
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
CHI
LV
CHI
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Archie Manning's Enduring Influence: How the Patriarch Shaped Ar…
dallasnews 40 minutes ago
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 6 hours, 33 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 6 hours, 34 minutes ago
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 12 hours, 54 minutes ago
Commanders' Chig Okonkwo Not Fading Away Yet Despite Early Seaso…
yahoo 18 hours, 59 minutes ago