Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Cowboys GB @ DAL

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

2-1  |  Road

40
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 8:20 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

1-2  |  Home

40
Key Game
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
@
Bryan Anger
KEY GAME

Bryan Anger

#5 | Punter
Player
Daniel Whelan None-None
Bryan Anger None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
0%
📊
COWBOYS
100%
PACKERS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Green Bay)
PackersGB (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

63.9%

Cowboys Cover

36.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GB -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

GB By 1-6 points

16.9%

GB By 7-13 points

18.5%

DAL By 1-6 points

14.2%

DAL By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
25.36
GREEN BAY
20.38
DALLAS
Simulated Score
24
GREEN BAY
27
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Packers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Push
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Packers (-0) Push
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Push
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 GB @ DAL 40 - 40
Jan 14, 2024 GB @ DAL 48 - 32
Nov 13, 2022 DAL @ GB 28 - 31
Oct 6, 2019 GB @ DAL 34 - 24
Oct 8, 2017 GB @ DAL 35 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +114.0% more
Dallas: 2.1 vs Green Bay: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +38.3% more
Dallas: 23.8 vs Green Bay: 17.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +31.8% more
Dallas: 257.8 vs Green Bay: 195.6
Total Yards (L5) +26.0% more
Dallas: 383.3 vs Green Bay: 304.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 25.4 40
DAL Score 20.4 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 17.2 26.0 / 32.0
Net Passing Yards 257.8 / 195.6 319.0 / 325.0
Rushing Yards 125.6 / 108.7 117.0 / 164.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.71
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 383.3 / 304.3 436.0 / 489.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.2 6.5 / 6.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
GB
DAL
GB
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
67% 2-1-1
0% 0-3-1
100% 3-0-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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