MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
95-63 | Road
3
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
87-71 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Abner Uribe
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abner Uribe | None-None | 1.70 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 3.50 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.70 Ldr
ERA
3.50
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
55%
PADRES
45%
BREWERS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
MIL By 1-2 runs
9.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
4.7%
SD By 1-2 runs
17.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
2.66
MILWAUKEE
San Diego
6.03
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.4
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 1
Oct 6, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Oct 4, 2026
SD @ MIL
3 - 4
Oct 3, 2026
SD @ MIL
2 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.341
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.743
OPS
▲
.925
154
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+149.0% more
San Diego: 1.7
vs
Milwaukee: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+68.9% more
San Diego: 14.2
vs
Milwaukee: 8.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.7% more
San Diego: 8.3
vs
Milwaukee: 6.0
Walks (L5)
+33.1% more
San Diego: 4.5
vs
Milwaukee: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
2.7
3
SD Score
6.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 6.8
6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 6.0
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 8.4
9.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.5 / 3.4
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIL
SD
MIL
ML
51%
85-83
62%
101-61
51%
85-82
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
91-77
58%
94-68
55%
92-75
48%
78-84
TTL
51%
82-80-6
40%
62-92-8
54%
86-74-6
50%
77-77-8
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