PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
68-89 | Road
4
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
80-77 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 5.34 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.02 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.34
ERA
Ldr 3.02
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
42%
REDS
58%
PIRATES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
13.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.06
PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati
4.14
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim
Reds (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026
PIT @ CIN
4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
PIT @ CIN
7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026
CIN @ PIT
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.734
▲
OPS
.699
186
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+20.5% more
Cincinnati: 1.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.2
Home Runs (Season)
+14.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Walks (L5)
+39.7% more
Pittsburgh: 2.5
vs
Cincinnati: 1.5
Hits (L5)
+31.3% more
Pittsburgh: 9.0
vs
Cincinnati: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.1
4
CIN Score
4.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 9.0
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 9.7
12.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 15.2
17.0 / 13.0
Walks
1.5 / 2.5
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
PIT
CIN
PIT
ML
55%
88-71
52%
82-77
49%
79-81
52%
85-78
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
86-73
50%
80-80
50%
81-82
TTL
53%
81-73-5
47%
72-81-6
54%
83-72-5
50%
79-78-6
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