Home / MLB Projections MLB / Tigers @ Guardians DET @ CLE

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

85-72  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Sep 24 • 6:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

85-72  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Holton
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Holton

#87 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Holton None-None 3.66 -- 1.2 2
Cade Smith None-None 3.00 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.66 ERA Ldr 3.00
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
50%
📊
GUARDIANS
50%
TIGERS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

39.9%

Guardians Cover

60.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

DET By 1-2 runs

16.3%

DET By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.13
DETROIT
5.15
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
4
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 DET @ CLE 2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026 DET @ CLE 6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 DET @ CLE 6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026 CLE @ DET 0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026 CLE @ DET 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720 ▲
OPS
.696
181 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +62.9% more
Cleveland: 13.7 vs Detroit: 8.4
Home Runs (L5) +34.0% more
Cleveland: 1.2 vs Detroit: 0.9
Errors (L5) +16.0% more
Cleveland: 0.5 vs Detroit: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +11.7% more
Cleveland: 12.9 vs Detroit: 11.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.1 1
CLE Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.1 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 13.7 / 8.4 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 11.5 14.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.2 / 4.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
DET
CLE
DET
ML
54% 87-75
54% 86-73
49% 80-83
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 93-69
64% 101-58
58% 95-68
57% 91-69
TTL
56% 89-71-2
46% 69-81-9
44% 70-90-2
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
cbssports 0 minutes ago
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
foxnews 0 minutes ago
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
si 0 minutes ago
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
yardbarker 0 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 3 hours, 10 minutes ago