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NEW YORK

METSNYM

81-76  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Sep 24 • 8:05 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

88-69  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Aaron Civale
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Civale

#38 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Manaea None-None 5.80 -- 1.0 1
Aaron Civale None-None 4.85 -- 3.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.80 ERA Ldr 4.85
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
METS
46%
📊
CUBS
54%
METS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

58.6%

Cubs Cover

41.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.5%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.0%

CHC By 1-2 runs

16.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

11.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.55
NEW YORK
3.68
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 CHC @ NYM 4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 CHC @ NYM 10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026 CHC @ NYM 9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026 NYM @ CHC 1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026 NYM @ CHC 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.705 ▲
OPS
.374
204 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +88.4% more
New York: 4.3 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +70.0% more
New York: 1.6 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +61.5% more
New York: 1.8 vs Chicago: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.6 3
CHC Score 3.7 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 10.0 11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 10.5 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 17.0 20.0 / 10.0
Walks 1.9 / 2.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
NYM
CHC
NYM
ML
58% 93-68
50% 79-80
51% 82-79
48% 76-83
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-66
47% 75-85-1
49% 78-81
TTL
52% 81-74-6
55% 80-66-13
46% 72-83-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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