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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

79-78  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Sep 24 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

70-87  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Stephen Kolek
STARTING PITCHER

Stephen Kolek

#32 | SP
@
Jose Fermin
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Fermin

#65 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Stephen Kolek None-None 3.51 -- 6.0 2
Jose Fermin None-None 4.59 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.51 Ldr ERA 4.59
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
56%
📊
ANGELS
44%
ROYALS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

52.5%

Angels Cover

47.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

18.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

14.3%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.0%

LAA By 3-4 runs

12.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.23
KANSAS CITY
3.98
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Angels (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 KC @ LAA 3 - 0
Aug 15, 2026 KC @ LAA 0 - 1
Aug 14, 2026 KC @ LAA 7 - 6
Apr 26, 2026 LAA @ KC 9 - 11
Apr 25, 2026 LAA @ KC 1 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.718 ▲
OPS
.679
170 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +49.3% more
Kansas City: 12.2 vs Los Angeles: 6.2
Total Bases (L5) +37.4% more
Kansas City: 18.6 vs Los Angeles: 11.7
Home Runs (Season) +9.4% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Strikeouts (L5) +9.3% more
Kansas City: 8.1 vs Los Angeles: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.2 2
LAA Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 1.0 / 3.0
Hits 6.2 / 12.2 6.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.1 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 18.6 11.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.8 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
KC
LAA
KC
ML
59% 96-66
55% 89-72
55% 89-73
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-65
57% 91-70
51% 82-80
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 83-74-5
58% 90-64-7
52% 82-75-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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