Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Giants STL @ SF

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

78-80  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Sep 24 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

77-81  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 2.11 -- 1.0 --
JT Brubaker None-None 3.77 -- 4.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
2.11 Ldr ERA 3.77
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
51%
📊
GIANTS
49%
CARDINALS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Francisco)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

49.0%

Giants Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

STL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.3%

SF By 1-2 runs

18.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.12
ST. LOUIS
4.22
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
A
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 SF @ STL 6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 SF @ STL 10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026 SF @ STL 1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026 STL @ SF 6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 STL @ SF 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.691
OPS
▲ .706
167
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +14.9% more
San Francisco: 3.1 vs St. Louis: 2.7
Home Runs (Season) +6.6% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.2%
San Francisco: 40.0% vs St. Louis: 37.8%
OPS (Season) +1.5%
San Francisco: 70.6% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.1 3
SF Score 4.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.6 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 7.8 / 10.4 11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.3 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 17.6 19.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.7 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
STL
SF
STL
ML
49% 79-81
53% 85-74
53% 85-75
52% 84-77
ATS
62% 100-60
56% 89-70
52% 83-77
53% 85-76
TTL
55% 82-68-10
46% 68-81-10
46% 68-81-11
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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