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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

84-73  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Sep 24 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

74-83  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Bryan King
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan King

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan King None-None 2.67 -- 1.0 --
Elvis Alvarado None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.67 Ldr ERA 3.38
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
56%
📊
ATHLETICS
44%
ASTROS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Athletics)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

22.4%

Athletics Cover

77.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

HOU By 1-2 runs

10.5%

HOU By 3-4 runs

5.3%

ATH By 1-2 runs

18.4%

ATH By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.3
HOUSTON
6.34
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
6
HOUSTON
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Sim Astros (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 HOU @ ATH 9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026 HOU @ ATH 13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026 HOU @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026 HOU @ ATH 7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026 ATH @ HOU 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.582
OPS
▲ .719
4
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4750.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +43.7% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs Houston: 3.0
Hits (L5) +21.3% more
Athletics: 7.1 vs Houston: 5.9
Total Bases (L5) +14.8% more
Athletics: 10.4 vs Houston: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 3.3 0
ATH Score 6.3 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.1 / 5.9 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 7.6 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 9.1 16.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
4%MONEY96%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
HOU
ATH
HOU
ML
59% 95-67
50% 81-82
54% 87-74
47% 77-87
ATS
52% 84-78
56% 91-72
50% 81-80
55% 90-74
TTL
54% 84-73-5
45% 70-84-9
42% 66-90-5
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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