Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Cubs NYM @ CHC

NEW YORK

METSNYM

80-76  |  Road

9
FINAL
Tue, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

88-68  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.22 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.22
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
45%
📊
CUBS
55%
METS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

45.4%

Cubs Cover

54.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

NYM By 1-2 runs

17.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

12.2%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.1%

CHC By 3-4 runs

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.7
NEW YORK
4.16
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim Cubs (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 CHC @ NYM 4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 CHC @ NYM 10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026 CHC @ NYM 9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026 NYM @ CHC 1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026 NYM @ CHC 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.705 ▲
OPS
.374
204 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +11.7% more
Chicago: 1.8 vs New York: 1.6
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +88.4% more
New York: 4.3 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +84.3% more
New York: 1.4 vs Chicago: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 3.7 9
CHC Score 4.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.3 / 9.4 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.2 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 10.3 7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 15.0 11.0 / 21.0
Walks 1.8 / 1.6 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
NYM
CHC
NYM
ML
58% 93-68
50% 79-80
51% 82-79
48% 76-83
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-66
47% 75-85-1
49% 78-81
TTL
52% 81-74-6
55% 80-66-13
46% 72-83-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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