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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

78-78  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, Sep 23 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

70-86  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Steven Cruz None-None 3.45 -- 1.0 --
Sam Bachman None-None 4.91 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.45 Ldr ERA 4.91
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
55%
📊
ANGELS
45%
ROYALS --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.0%

Angels Cover

60.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
KANSAS CITY
4.41
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Angels (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 KC @ LAA 3 - 0
Aug 15, 2026 KC @ LAA 0 - 1
Aug 14, 2026 KC @ LAA 7 - 6
Apr 26, 2026 LAA @ KC 9 - 11
Apr 25, 2026 LAA @ KC 1 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Los Angeles LAA
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.718 ▲
OPS
.679
170 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +44.2% more
Los Angeles: 3.9 vs Kansas City: 2.7
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs Kansas City: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +33.2% more
Los Angeles: 7.5 vs Kansas City: 5.6
Home Runs (L5) +13.6% more
Los Angeles: 1.4 vs Kansas City: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.4 8
LAA Score 4.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 10.8 5.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.3 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 5.6 7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 12.0 / 17.4 11.0 / 21.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.7 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
KC
LAA
KC
ML
59% 96-66
55% 89-72
55% 89-73
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-65
57% 91-70
51% 82-80
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 83-74-5
58% 90-64-7
52% 82-75-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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