MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
95-62 | Road
0
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
86-71 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Ortiz
#3 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Ortiz | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 3.98 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.98
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
56%
PADRES
44%
BREWERS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
MIL By 1-2 runs
17.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
12.2%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.1%
SD By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4.21
MILWAUKEE
San Diego
4.67
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 1
Oct 6, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Oct 4, 2026
SD @ MIL
3 - 4
Oct 3, 2026
SD @ MIL
2 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
MIL @ SD
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.14
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.341
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.743
OPS
▲
.925
154
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+74.0% more
San Diego: 1.0
vs
Milwaukee: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+41.6% more
San Diego: 5.8
vs
Milwaukee: 4.1
Total Bases (L5)
+20.6% more
San Diego: 12.8
vs
Milwaukee: 10.6
OPS (Season)
+18.2%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 74.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.2
0
SD Score
4.7
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.3 / 8.2
8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.2
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 8.5
5.0 / 1.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 10.6
17.0 / 4.0
Walks
5.8 / 4.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
MIL
SD
MIL
ML
51%
85-83
62%
101-61
51%
85-82
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
91-77
58%
94-68
55%
92-75
48%
78-84
TTL
51%
82-80-6
40%
62-92-8
54%
86-74-6
50%
77-77-8
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…