Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Diamondbacks LAD @ ARI

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

88-68  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Sep 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

79-77  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Thompson

#81 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tanner Scott None-None 4.91 -- 0.2 --
Ryan Thompson None-None 3.89 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.91 ERA Ldr 3.89
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
56%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
44%
DODGERS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Arizona)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

48.5%

Diamondbacks Cover

51.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.2%

LAD By 3-4 runs

13.1%

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

14.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.35
LOS ANGELES
5.5
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim Diamondbacks (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026 LAD @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026 ARI @ LAD 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ARI @ LAD 9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762 ▲
OPS
.720
204 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +40.5% more
Arizona: 11.0 vs Los Angeles: 7.8
Total Bases (L5) +22.1% more
Arizona: 17.7 vs Los Angeles: 14.5
Errors (L5) +17.0% more
Arizona: 0.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +26.5% more
Los Angeles: 11.5 vs Arizona: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.4 4
ARI Score 5.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.0 / 7.8 9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 11.5 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 17.7 / 14.5 13.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.5 / 4.6 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAD
ARI
LAD
ML
54% 87-74
56% 92-73
54% 86-74
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 98-67
56% 89-71
43% 72-94
TTL
52% 80-73-8
48% 77-82-6
49% 73-77-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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