Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Giants STL @ SF

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

77-80  |  Road

9
FINAL
Tue, Sep 23 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

77-80  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
@
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley O'Brien None-None 1.96 -- 0.1 1
Logan Webb None-None 3.30 -- 6.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
1.96 Ldr ERA 3.30
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
50%
📊
GIANTS
50%
CARDINALS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (St. Louis)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

55.5%

Giants Cover

44.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.2%

STL By 3-4 runs

15.1%

SF By 1-2 runs

17.4%

SF By 3-4 runs

11.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
ST. LOUIS
3.75
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
6
ST. LOUIS
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Cardinals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 SF @ STL 6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 SF @ STL 10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026 SF @ STL 1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026 STL @ SF 6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026 STL @ SF 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.691
OPS
▲ .706
167
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +23.7% more
St. Louis: 8.2 vs San Francisco: 6.2
Total Bases (L5) +21.0% more
St. Louis: 12.8 vs San Francisco: 10.1
Runs per Game (Season) +7.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs San Francisco: 4.1
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.7%
St. Louis: 31.3% vs San Francisco: 30.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.3 9
SF Score 3.8 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.2 / 8.2 11.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 7.4 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.1 / 12.8 17.0 / 27.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.0 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
STL
SF
STL
ML
49% 79-81
53% 85-74
53% 85-75
52% 84-77
ATS
62% 100-60
56% 89-70
52% 83-77
53% 85-76
TTL
55% 82-68-10
46% 68-81-10
46% 68-81-11
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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