WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
64-92 | Road
5
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
73-83 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
PJ Poulin
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Sale
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Poulin | None-None | 3.80 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Chris Sale | None-None | 2.63 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.80
ERA
Ldr 2.63
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
44%
BRAVES
56%
NATIONALS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
79%
Under 0
21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
WSH By 1-2 runs
14.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
8.9%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.22
WASHINGTON
Atlanta
4.83
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
C
Sim
Nationals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATL @ WSH
9 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
ATL @ WSH
5 - 9
Aug 2, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 4
Aug 1, 2026
WSH @ ATL
3 - 8
Jul 31, 2026
WSH @ ATL
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.744
OPS
▲
.757
210
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+113.0% more
Atlanta: 1.9
vs
Washington: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+50.2% more
Atlanta: 18.6
vs
Washington: 12.4
Hits (L5)
+34.8% more
Atlanta: 10.7
vs
Washington: 7.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.2% more
Atlanta: 10.3
vs
Washington: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.2
5
ATL Score
4.8
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.7 / 7.9
14.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 8.0
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
18.6 / 12.4
19.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.9
3.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
46%
77-90
57%
92-69
54%
90-78
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
93-68
52%
87-81
57%
91-70
TTL
53%
83-73-11
50%
77-78-6
49%
76-80-11
42%
65-90-6
Contextual Game News
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Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS