ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
76-80 | Road
6
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
77-79 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Gilbert
#0 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 3.21 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Drew Gilbert | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.21
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
49%
GIANTS
51%
CARDINALS
--
GIANTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
18.8%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.2%
SF By 1-2 runs
18.0%
SF By 3-4 runs
12.9%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.27
ST. LOUIS
San Francisco
4.05
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Giants
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
Giants (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
SF @ STL
6 - 5
Sep 15, 2026
SF @ STL
10 - 3
Sep 14, 2026
SF @ STL
1 - 2
Sep 9, 2026
STL @ SF
6 - 7
Sep 8, 2026
STL @ SF
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
San Francisco
SF
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.691
OPS
▲
.706
167
Home Runs
▲
178
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.2% more
St. Louis: 8.6
vs
San Francisco: 6.7
Hits (L5)
+19.4% more
St. Louis: 7.2
vs
San Francisco: 5.8
Total Bases (L5)
+15.1% more
St. Louis: 10.3
vs
San Francisco: 8.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.3
6
SF Score
4.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.8 / 7.2
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 8.6
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
8.7 / 10.3
13.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.5
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
STL
SF
STL
ML
49%
79-81
53%
85-74
53%
85-75
52%
84-77
ATS
62%
100-60
56%
89-70
52%
83-77
53%
85-76
TTL
55%
82-68-10
46%
68-81-10
46%
68-81-11
50%
76-75-10
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