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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

73-82  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 1:35 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

66-89  |  Home

11
Probable Pitchers
Carlos Cortes
STARTING PITCHER

Carlos Cortes

#26 | Right Field
@
Yohan Ramirez
STARTING PITCHER

Yohan Ramirez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carlos Cortes None-None -- -- -- --
Yohan Ramirez None-None 5.58 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.58
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
55%
📊
PIRATES
45%
ATHLETICS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

57.8%

Pirates Cover

42.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.4%

ATH By 3-4 runs

15.8%

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.8%

PIT By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.25
ATHLETICS
3.46
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
A
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 PIT @ ATH 12 - 4
Jun 16, 2026 PIT @ ATH 6 - 5
Jun 15, 2026 PIT @ ATH 2 - 11
Sep 21, 2025 ATH @ PIT 0 - 11
Sep 20, 2025 ATH @ PIT 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.719
OPS
▲ .734
194 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +16.6% more
Athletics: 3.1 vs Pittsburgh: 2.6
Home Runs (Season) +4.1% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Strikeouts (L5) +45.0% more
Pittsburgh: 9.7 vs Athletics: 6.7
Hits (L5) +26.3% more
Pittsburgh: 6.7 vs Athletics: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 4.3 0
PIT Score 3.5 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 5.3 15.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 6.7 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 9.2 26.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.1 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ATH
PIT
ATH
ML
52% 82-77
59% 95-67
52% 85-78
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 86-73
52% 84-78
50% 81-82
50% 81-80
TTL
47% 72-81-6
54% 84-73-5
50% 79-78-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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