NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
87-68 | Road
7
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
73-82 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 2.41 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 3.09 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.41 Ldr
ERA
3.09
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
59%
ORIOLES
41%
YANKEES
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.6%
BAL By 1-2 runs
10.4%
BAL By 3-4 runs
5.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.65
NEW YORK
Baltimore
2.57
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.1
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 25, 2026
BAL @ NYY
3 - 6
Aug 20, 2026
NYY @ BAL
6 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
NYY @ BAL
5 - 3
Aug 18, 2026
NYY @ BAL
3 - 1
May 13, 2026
NYY @ BAL
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Baltimore
BAL
1
Games Played
▲
161
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
1.041
▲
OPS
.711
2
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+58.5% more
New York: 1.4
vs
Baltimore: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+54.0% more
New York: 0.6
vs
Baltimore: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+50.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
Total Bases (L5)
+37.5% more
New York: 14.2
vs
Baltimore: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.7
7
BAL Score
2.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 8.6
4.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 9.6
17.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
8.9 / 14.2
8.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.2
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NYY
BAL
NYY
ML
53%
83-73
47%
76-85
57%
90-69
52%
85-77
ATS
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-66
57%
90-68-1
53%
86-76
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
81-73-7
51%
78-75-6
53%
82-72-7
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