CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
88-67 | Road
0
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
79-76 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Crow-Armstrong
#4 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Andrew Abbott | None-None | 2.80 | -- | 4.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.80
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
56%
REDS
44%
CUBS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.0%
CHC By 3-4 runs
11.5%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CIN By 3-4 runs
15.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.3
CHICAGO
Cincinnati
5.01
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
CHC @ CIN
9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
CHC @ CIN
5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
CHC @ CIN
4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
CIN @ CHC
7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CIN @ CHC
5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.229
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.305
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.374
OPS
▲
.699
0
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+21300.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+361.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+54.5% more
Cincinnati: 2.4
vs
Chicago: 1.6
OPS (Season)
+32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.3
0
CIN Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.0
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 1.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 9.1
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.9 / 14.9
7.0 / 6.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.7
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHC
CIN
CHC
ML
55%
88-71
58%
93-68
49%
79-81
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
97-63-1
50%
80-80
47%
75-85-1
TTL
53%
81-73-5
52%
81-74-6
54%
83-72-5
46%
72-83-6
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