Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Rangers MIA @ TEX

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

75-80  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 2:35 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

79-76  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Michael Petersen
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Petersen

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cole Winn
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Winn

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Petersen None-None 4.02 -- 1.0 1
Cole Winn None-None 1.59 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.02 ERA Ldr 1.59
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
47%
📊
RANGERS
53%
MARLINS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Texas)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

47.7%

Rangers Cover

52.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

MIA By 1-2 runs

18.0%

MIA By 3-4 runs

12.9%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.8%

TEX By 3-4 runs

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.73
MIAMI
4.96
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
4
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 24, 2026 TEX @ MIA 2 - 4
Jun 23, 2026 TEX @ MIA 4 - 6
Jun 22, 2026 TEX @ MIA 4 - 3
Sep 21, 2025 MIA @ TEX 4 - 2
Sep 20, 2025 MIA @ TEX 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.727 ▲
OPS
.713
168
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8.9% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Home Runs (L5) +43.7% more
Miami: 1.6 vs Texas: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +41.3% more
Miami: 18.3 vs Texas: 10.7
Hits (L5) +34.9% more
Miami: 11.1 vs Texas: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.7 4
TEX Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 11.1 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 7.4 9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 18.3 9.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.7 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
MIA
TEX
MIA
ML
53% 86-76
48% 78-84
57% 91-70
55% 88-72
ATS
57% 92-70
56% 91-71
61% 98-63
54% 86-74
TTL
53% 78-70-14
56% 88-69-5
55% 81-66-14
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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