PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
92-63 | Road
2
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
78-77 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.99 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 6.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.99 Ldr
ERA
4.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
59%
DIAMONDBACKS
41%
PHILLIES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.6%
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.1%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.78
PHILADELPHIA
Arizona
4.68
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
PHI @ ARI
0 - 1
Sep 1, 2026
PHI @ ARI
7 - 1
Aug 31, 2026
PHI @ ARI
2 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
ARI @ PHI
4 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
ARI @ PHI
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724
▲
OPS
.720
3
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+66.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.6
vs
Arizona: 0.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.6%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Home Runs (Season)
+5433.3% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Arizona: 0.9
vs
Philadelphia: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.8
2
ARI Score
4.7
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 8.1
15.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.6
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 6.8
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.6 / 14.6
26.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.7
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
PHI
ARI
PHI
ML
54%
87-74
59%
97-67
54%
86-74
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
91-70
65%
107-57
56%
89-71
51%
83-81
TTL
52%
80-73-8
57%
88-67-9
49%
73-77-9
51%
78-76-9
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