Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Dodgers SF @ LAD

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

76-79  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 4:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

88-67  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Trevor McDonald
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor McDonald

#72 | Starting Pitcher
@
Will Klein
STARTING PITCHER

Will Klein

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor McDonald None-None 3.38 -- 6.0 3
Will Klein None-None 2.84 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 ERA Ldr 2.84
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
42%
📊
DODGERS
58%
GIANTS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Los Angeles)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

22.3%

Dodgers Cover

77.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SF By 1-2 runs

10.5%

SF By 3-4 runs

5.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.72
SAN FRANCISCO
6.77
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Sim Dodgers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 LAD @ SF 5 - 1
Sep 26, 2026 LAD @ SF 4 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 LAD @ SF 2 - 0
Sep 20, 2026 SF @ LAD 1 - 3
Sep 19, 2026 SF @ LAD 4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.706
OPS
▲ .762
178
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +189.0% more
Los Angeles: 2.6 vs San Francisco: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +85.9% more
Los Angeles: 17.8 vs San Francisco: 9.6
Strikeouts (L5) +73.1% more
Los Angeles: 12.2 vs San Francisco: 7.1
Walks (L5) +65.4% more
Los Angeles: 5.8 vs San Francisco: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.7 3
LAD Score 6.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 6.2 7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 12.2 / 7.1 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 17.8 / 9.6 8.0 / 7.0
Walks 5.8 / 3.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SF
LAD
SF
ML
56% 92-73
49% 79-81
48% 79-87
53% 85-75
ATS
59% 98-67
62% 100-60
43% 72-94
52% 83-77
TTL
48% 77-82-6
55% 82-68-10
44% 70-90-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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