SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
86-69 | Road
7
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
84-71 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan King
#74 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | None-None | 3.43 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Bryan King | None-None | 2.44 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.43
ERA
Ldr 2.44
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
51%
ASTROS
49%
MARINERS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
6.14
SEATTLE
Houston
4.63
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
HOU @ SEA
5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026
HOU @ SEA
7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026
SEA @ HOU
3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
SEA @ HOU
10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026
SEA @ HOU
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.379
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.693
▲
OPS
.582
182
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+55.6% more
Seattle: 1.9
vs
Houston: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+49.0% more
Seattle: 0.6
vs
Houston: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+34.0% more
Seattle: 16.9
vs
Houston: 11.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
6.1
7
HOU Score
4.6
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 9.0
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 10.2
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 16.9
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.6 / 1.3
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SEA
HOU
SEA
ML
50%
81-82
50%
81-81
47%
77-87
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
98-64
55%
90-74
59%
95-67
TTL
45%
70-84-9
56%
85-67-10
45%
69-86-9
53%
81-71-10
Contextual Game News
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…