Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duquesne @ Akron DUQ @ AKR

DUQUESNE

DUQUESNEDUQ

1-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 6:00 PM ET
InfoCision Stadium
View Odds Details →

AKRON

AKRONAKR

0-3  |  Home

51
Key Game
Myles Walker
KEY GAME

Myles Walker

#2 | Wide Receiver
@
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
Player
Myles Walker None-None
Joseph Castle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUQUESNE
100%
📊
AKRON
0%
DUQUESNE --
AKRON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Akron)
DuquesneDUQ (-3.5) 0 AkronAKR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duquesne Cover

0.1%

Akron Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AKR -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)

DUQ By 1-6 points

0.0%

DUQ By 7-13 points

0.0%

AKR By 1-6 points

0.2%

AKR By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6
DUQUESNE
51
AKRON
Simulated Score
17
DUQUESNE
31
AKRON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Akron Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Akron Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Akron (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Sim Akron (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 DUQ @ AKR 7 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +72.2% more
Akron: 131.5 vs Duquesne: 76.4
First Downs (L5) +56.8% more
Akron: 18.0 vs Duquesne: 11.5
Total Yards (L5) +45.6% more
Akron: 331.8 vs Duquesne: 227.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Akron: 0.3 vs Duquesne: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score 6.0 7
AKR Score 51.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 11.5 26.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 131.5 / 76.4 265.0 / 178.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.45 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 331.8 / 227.9 514.0 / 230.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.6 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
--
AKR Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
--
AKR Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -14.6 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
--
AKR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
DUQ
AKR
DUQ
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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