Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / McNeese @ Utah State MCN @ USU

MCNEESE

MCNEESEMCN

1-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 8:00 PM ET
Maverik Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

2-1  |  Home

48
Key Game
George Dixon
KEY GAME

George Dixon

#38 | Punter
@
Hyrum Hatch
KEY GAME

Hyrum Hatch

#55 | Long Snapper
Player
George Dixon None-None
Hyrum Hatch None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MCNEESE
100%
📊
UTAH STATE
0%
MCNEESE --
UTAH STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Utah State)
McNeeseMCN (-3.5) 0 Utah StateUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

McNeese Cover

0.1%

Utah State Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USU -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

MCN By 1-6 points

0.0%

MCN By 7-13 points

0.0%

USU By 1-6 points

0.2%

USU By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MCNEESE
51
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
10
MCNEESE
45
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utah State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utah State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Sim Utah State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 MCN @ USU 7 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +75.1% more
Utah State: 176.8 vs McNeese: 101.0
Total Yards (L5) +74.0% more
Utah State: 410.4 vs McNeese: 235.8
First Downs (L5) +65.8% more
Utah State: 21.2 vs McNeese: 12.8
Turnovers (L5) +57.5% more
McNeese: 1.9 vs Utah State: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MCN Score 6.0 7
USU Score 51.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 12.8 27.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 176.8 / 101.0 334.0 / 109.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 410.4 / 235.8 627.0 / 239.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MCN
--
USU Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MCN
--
USU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MCN
--
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
MCN
USU
MCN
ML
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
20% 1-4
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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