Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nicholls @ Texas St NICH @ TXST

NICHOLLS

NICHOLLSNICH

1-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 8:00 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

2-1  |  Home

35
Key Game
Pharrell Harewood
KEY GAME

Pharrell Harewood

#16 | Punter
@
Tymere Jackson
KEY GAME

Tymere Jackson

#56 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Pharrell Harewood None-None
Tymere Jackson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NICHOLLS
100%
📊
TEXAS ST
0%
NICHOLLS --
TEXAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Texas State)
NichollsNICH (-3.5) 0 Texas StTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nicholls Cover

11.2%

Texas St Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TXST -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

NICH By 1-6 points

5.9%

NICH By 7-13 points

3.2%

TXST By 1-6 points

10.7%

TXST By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
14
NICHOLLS
31
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
20
NICHOLLS
31
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Texas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 NICH @ TXST 3 - 35
Sep 28, 2019 NICH @ TXST 3 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +128.1% more
Texas State: 201.9 vs Nicholls: 88.5
Total Yards (L5) +64.8% more
Texas State: 441.8 vs Nicholls: 268.0
First Downs (L5) +46.1% more
Texas State: 23.1 vs Nicholls: 15.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Texas State: 0.4 vs Nicholls: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NICH Score 14.0 3
TXST Score 31.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 15.8 25.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 201.9 / 88.5 207.0 / 127.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.79 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 441.8 / 268.0 401.0 / 224.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
--
TXST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
--
TXST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
--
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
NICH
TXST
NICH
ML
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Former Texas A&M Head Coach Dennis Franchione Dies at 75 After 1…
si 2 days, 7 hours ago
Texas Republican Candidate's Racist Post Ignites Firestorm, But …
newspub_live 2 weeks, 4 days ago
UTSA Gears Up for Top-Ranked Texas: Five Key Players to Watch
yahoo 3 weeks, 2 days ago
Texas Stuns Ohio State with Historic Comeback Victory
newsweek 3 weeks, 4 days ago
Texas Stuns Ohio State, Claims Inside Track to No. 1 in AP Top 25
cadillacnews 3 weeks, 4 days ago