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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

73-81  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

65-89  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Brady Basso

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Braxton Ashcraft
STARTING PITCHER

Braxton Ashcraft

#35 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brady Basso None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
Braxton Ashcraft None-None 2.62 -- 3.0 6
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.62
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
55%
📊
PIRATES
45%
ATHLETICS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

70.2%

Pirates Cover

29.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.5%

ATH By 3-4 runs

18.6%

PIT By 1-2 runs

13.2%

PIT By 3-4 runs

7.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.03
ATHLETICS
2.91
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Pirates (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 PIT @ ATH 12 - 4
Jun 16, 2026 PIT @ ATH 6 - 5
Jun 15, 2026 PIT @ ATH 2 - 11
Sep 21, 2025 ATH @ PIT 0 - 11
Sep 20, 2025 ATH @ PIT 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.719
OPS
▲ .734
194 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +76.6% more
Athletics: 1.5 vs Pittsburgh: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +17.8% more
Athletics: 12.8 vs Pittsburgh: 10.5
Home Runs (Season) +4.1% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Pittsburgh: 186.0
Strikeouts (L5) +14.5% more
Pittsburgh: 8.1 vs Athletics: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 5.0 0
PIT Score 2.9 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 7.4 5.0 / 1.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.0 13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 12.8 11.0 / 2.0
Walks 3.9 / 3.6 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ATH
PIT
ATH
ML
52% 82-77
59% 95-67
52% 85-78
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 86-73
52% 84-78
50% 81-82
50% 81-80
TTL
47% 72-81-6
54% 84-73-5
50% 79-78-6
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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