CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
88-66 | Road
3
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
78-76 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Civale
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.06 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.91
ERA
Ldr 3.06
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
57%
REDS
43%
CUBS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.9%
CHC By 3-4 runs
12.7%
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.9%
CIN By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.74
CHICAGO
Cincinnati
5.03
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
CHC @ CIN
9 - 1
Sep 19, 2026
CHC @ CIN
5 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
CHC @ CIN
4 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
CIN @ CHC
7 - 5
Aug 29, 2026
CIN @ CHC
5 - 17
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.11
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.229
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.305
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.374
OPS
▲
.699
0
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+21300.0% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+361.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+57.0% more
Cincinnati: 2.1
vs
Chicago: 1.4
OPS (Season)
+32.5%
Cincinnati: 69.9%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.7
3
CIN Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 8.5
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.4
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.1
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 14.3
19.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.1
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
CHC
CIN
CHC
ML
55%
88-71
58%
93-68
49%
79-81
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
97-63-1
50%
80-80
47%
75-85-1
TTL
53%
81-73-5
52%
81-74-6
54%
83-72-5
46%
72-83-6
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