Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Rangers MIA @ TEX

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

74-80  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

79-75  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Calvin Faucher
STARTING PITCHER

Calvin Faucher

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Ezequiel Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Ezequiel Duran

#20 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Calvin Faucher None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 --
Ezequiel Duran None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
47%
📊
RANGERS
53%
MARLINS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Texas)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

33.2%

Rangers Cover

66.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

MIA By 1-2 runs

14.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

8.5%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.55
MIAMI
6.29
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.8
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 24, 2026 TEX @ MIA 2 - 4
Jun 23, 2026 TEX @ MIA 4 - 6
Jun 22, 2026 TEX @ MIA 4 - 3
Sep 21, 2025 MIA @ TEX 4 - 2
Sep 20, 2025 MIA @ TEX 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.727 ▲
OPS
.713
168
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +29.7% more
Texas: 2.6 vs Miami: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +10.8% more
Texas: 8.5 vs Miami: 7.7
Errors (L5) +10.0% more
Texas: 0.5 vs Miami: 0.4
Home Runs (Season) +8.9% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.6 4
TEX Score 6.3 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.8 / 11.7 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 7.7 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 19.0 11.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.0 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
MIA
TEX
MIA
ML
53% 86-76
48% 78-84
57% 91-70
55% 88-72
ATS
57% 92-70
56% 91-71
61% 98-63
54% 86-74
TTL
53% 78-70-14
56% 88-69-5
55% 81-66-14
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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