SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
83-71 | Road
7
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
58-96 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Edgar Quero
#26 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 2.76 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Edgar Quero | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.76
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
66%
WHITE SOX
34%
PADRES
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.1%
CHW By 1-2 runs
16.5%
CHW By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.81
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
3.9
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
CHW @ SD
3 - 4
May 2, 2026
CHW @ SD
4 - 0
May 1, 2026
CHW @ SD
8 - 2
Sep 21, 2025
SD @ CHW
3 - 2
Sep 20, 2025
SD @ CHW
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Chicago
CHW
2
▲
Games Played
1
6.00
Runs / Game
6.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.324
.362
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
.925
▲
OPS
.826
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+36.0% more
San Diego: 8.1
vs
Chicago: 5.2
Total Bases (L5)
+30.0% more
San Diego: 12.0
vs
Chicago: 8.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+15.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Chicago: 41.2%
OPS (Season)
+9.9%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Chicago: 82.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.8
7
CHW Score
3.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.2 / 8.1
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.0
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
8.4 / 12.0
13.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.7
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
SD
CHW
SD
ML
49%
81-86
51%
85-83
56%
94-73
51%
85-82
ATS
59%
99-68
54%
91-77
56%
93-74
55%
92-75
TTL
58%
96-69-2
51%
82-80-6
51%
84-81-2
54%
86-74-6
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