SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
85-69 | Road
6
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
84-70 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 1.49 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 2.34 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.49 Ldr
ERA
2.34
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
51%
ASTROS
49%
MARINERS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.4%
SEA By 3-4 runs
15.8%
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.8%
HOU By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
5.72
SEATTLE
Houston
4.92
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
B
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
HOU @ SEA
5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026
HOU @ SEA
7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026
SEA @ HOU
3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
SEA @ HOU
10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026
SEA @ HOU
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.379
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.693
▲
OPS
.582
182
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+74.0% more
Seattle: 1.0
vs
Houston: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+67.4% more
Seattle: 2.3
vs
Houston: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+45.4% more
Seattle: 17.9
vs
Houston: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
5.7
6
HOU Score
4.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 9.0
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 2.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 9.8
9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
9.8 / 17.9
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.9 / 1.5
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SEA
HOU
SEA
ML
50%
81-82
50%
81-81
47%
77-87
52%
85-77
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
98-64
55%
90-74
59%
95-67
TTL
45%
70-84-9
56%
85-67-10
45%
69-86-9
53%
81-71-10
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