Home / MLB Projections MLB / Brewers @ Cardinals MIL @ STL

MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

94-60  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

75-79  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Abner Uribe
STARTING PITCHER

Abner Uribe

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Abner Uribe None-None 1.74 -- 1.0 2
Riley O'Brien None-None 2.01 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.74 Ldr ERA 2.01
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
62%
📊
CARDINALS
38%
BREWERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (St. Louis)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

48.2%

Cardinals Cover

51.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

18.1%

MIL By 3-4 runs

13.0%

STL By 1-2 runs

18.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.31
MILWAUKEE
4.49
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
4
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 STL @ MIL 2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026 MIL @ STL 8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 MIL @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.743 ▲
OPS
.691
154
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8.4% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Milwaukee: 154.0
Errors (L5) +65.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.9 vs St. Louis: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +32.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.8 vs St. Louis: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season) +13.6% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.3 3
STL Score 4.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.5 / 10.1 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 10.9 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 14.3 9.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.8 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIL
STL
MIL
ML
53% 85-74
62% 101-61
52% 84-77
52% 84-78
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 94-68
53% 85-76
48% 78-84
TTL
46% 68-81-10
40% 62-92-8
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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