PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
92-62 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
77-77 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | None-None | 6.46 | -- | 5.1 | 4 |
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 3.99 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.46
ERA
Ldr 3.99
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
40%
DIAMONDBACKS
60%
PHILLIES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
74%
Under 0
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
13.3%
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.24
PHILADELPHIA
Arizona
5.34
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
PHI @ ARI
0 - 1
Sep 1, 2026
PHI @ ARI
7 - 1
Aug 31, 2026
PHI @ ARI
2 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
ARI @ PHI
4 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
ARI @ PHI
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724
▲
OPS
.720
3
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5433.3% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+49.0% more
Arizona: 0.8
vs
Philadelphia: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.3% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.7% more
Arizona: 8.0
vs
Philadelphia: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.2
3
ARI Score
5.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.6
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 6.7
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 16.0
15.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.6
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
PHI
ARI
PHI
ML
54%
87-74
59%
97-67
54%
86-74
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
91-70
65%
107-57
56%
89-71
51%
83-81
TTL
52%
80-73-8
57%
88-67-9
49%
73-77-9
51%
78-76-9
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