Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wagner @ C Michigan WAG @ CMU

WAGNER

WAGNERWAG

0-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 1:00 PM ET
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

C MICHIGANCMU

1-2  |  Home

49
Key Game
Ethan Appolon
KEY GAME

Ethan Appolon

#5 | Defensive Lineman
@
Declan Duley
KEY GAME

Declan Duley

#18 | Punter
Player
Ethan Appolon None-None
Declan Duley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAGNER
100%
📊
C MICHIGAN
0%
WAGNER --
C MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
25.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Central Michigan)
WagnerWAG (-3.5) 0 C MichiganCMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wagner Cover

17.7%

C Michigan Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CMU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

WAG By 1-6 points

8.6%

WAG By 7-13 points

5.3%

CMU By 1-6 points

13.5%

CMU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
WAGNER
19
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
10
WAGNER
42
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI C Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim C Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI C Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim C Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 25.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 WAG @ CMU 10 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +98.0% more
Central Michigan: 1.5 vs Wagner: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.2% more
Central Michigan: 112.0 vs Wagner: 76.1
First Downs (L5) +46.4% more
Central Michigan: 13.2 vs Wagner: 9.0
Total Yards (L5) +41.6% more
Central Michigan: 222.8 vs Wagner: 157.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAG Score 6.0 10
CMU Score 19.0 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 13.2 / 9.0 24.0 / 6.0
Rushing Yards 112.0 / 76.1 233.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 222.8 / 157.3 506.0 / 113.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAG
--
CMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAG
--
CMU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WAG
--
CMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
WAG
CMU
WAG
ML
100% 5-0
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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