ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
72-81 | Road
4
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
65-88 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Basso
#66 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Basso | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.22 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
4.22
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
55%
PIRATES
45%
ATHLETICS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.7
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.7 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -3.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
17.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
19.7%
PIT By 1-2 runs
8.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
4.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
5.46
ATHLETICS
Pittsburgh
1.78
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Athletics
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.7
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
PIT @ ATH
12 - 4
Jun 16, 2026
PIT @ ATH
6 - 5
Jun 15, 2026
PIT @ ATH
2 - 11
Sep 21, 2025
ATH @ PIT
0 - 11
Sep 20, 2025
ATH @ PIT
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.719
OPS
▲
.734
194
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+56.4% more
Athletics: 1.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+34.7% more
Athletics: 14.2
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.3
Hits (L5)
+31.5% more
Athletics: 9.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.3
Home Runs (Season)
+4.1% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
5.5
4
PIT Score
1.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.3 / 9.1
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.6
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
9.3 / 14.2
13.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.8 / 3.4
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ATH
PIT
ATH
ML
52%
82-77
59%
95-67
52%
85-78
54%
87-74
ATS
54%
86-73
52%
84-78
50%
81-82
50%
81-80
TTL
47%
72-81-6
54%
84-73-5
50%
79-78-6
42%
66-90-5
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom