SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
83-70 | Road
3
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
57-96 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Taylor
#31 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 3.28 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Grant Taylor | None-None | 5.35 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.28 Ldr
ERA
5.35
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
67%
WHITE SOX
33%
PADRES
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.0%
CHW By 1-2 runs
14.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
8.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.25
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
3.49
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
CHW @ SD
3 - 4
May 2, 2026
CHW @ SD
4 - 0
May 1, 2026
CHW @ SD
8 - 2
Sep 21, 2025
SD @ CHW
3 - 2
Sep 20, 2025
SD @ CHW
7 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Chicago
CHW
2
▲
Games Played
1
6.00
Runs / Game
6.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.324
.362
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
.925
▲
OPS
.826
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+33.1% more
San Diego: 8.7
vs
Chicago: 5.8
Total Bases (L5)
+32.6% more
San Diego: 13.6
vs
Chicago: 9.1
Home Runs (L5)
+31.9% more
San Diego: 1.4
vs
Chicago: 0.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+15.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Chicago: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.3
3
CHW Score
3.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 8.7
4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 10.1
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
9.1 / 13.6
7.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.3 / 2.5
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-80-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
SD
CHW
SD
ML
48%
81-87
51%
85-83
56%
94-74
51%
85-82
ATS
59%
99-69
54%
91-77
55%
93-75
55%
92-75
TTL
58%
97-69-2
51%
82-80-6
51%
85-81-2
54%
86-74-6
Contextual Game News
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