Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Rangers MIA @ TEX

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

73-80  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Sep 19 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

79-74  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Michael Petersen
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Petersen

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cole Winn
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Winn

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Petersen None-None 4.30 -- 1.0 --
Cole Winn None-None 1.41 -- 1.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.30 ERA Ldr 1.41
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
46%
📊
RANGERS
54%
MARLINS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Texas)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

30.1%

Rangers Cover

69.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

MIA By 1-2 runs

13.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

7.6%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.5%

TEX By 3-4 runs

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.48
MIAMI
6.57
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 24, 2026 TEX @ MIA 2 - 4
Jun 23, 2026 TEX @ MIA 4 - 6
Jun 22, 2026 TEX @ MIA 4 - 3
Sep 21, 2025 MIA @ TEX 4 - 2
Sep 20, 2025 MIA @ TEX 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.727 ▲
OPS
.713
168
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Texas: 0.8 vs Miami: 0.6
Home Runs (Season) +8.9% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Home Runs (L5) +51.6% more
Miami: 1.6 vs Texas: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +31.7% more
Miami: 17.4 vs Texas: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.5 6
TEX Score 6.6 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 10.5 4.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 8.0 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 17.4 8.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.5 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
12%MONEY88%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
MIA
TEX
MIA
ML
53% 86-76
48% 78-84
57% 91-70
55% 88-72
ATS
57% 92-70
56% 91-71
61% 98-63
54% 86-74
TTL
53% 78-70-14
56% 88-69-5
55% 81-66-14
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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