Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Rockies LAA @ COL

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

69-84  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Sep 19 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

41-112  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Mitch Farris
STARTING PITCHER

Mitch Farris

#70 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mitch Farris None-None 6.52 -- 4.1 5
Jimmy Herget None-None 2.61 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
6.52 ERA Ldr 2.61
-- WHIP --
4.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
69%
📊
ROCKIES
31%
ANGELS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Colorado)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

44.6%

Rockies Cover

55.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.4%

LAA By 3-4 runs

12.0%

COL By 1-2 runs

19.2%

COL By 3-4 runs

15.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.95
LOS ANGELES
3.49
COLORADO
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockies Win
31% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.4
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 3, 2026 COL @ LAA 4 - 11
Jun 2, 2026 COL @ LAA 8 - 2
Jun 1, 2026 COL @ LAA 9 - 8
Sep 21, 2025 LAA @ COL 1 - 3
Sep 20, 2025 LAA @ COL 3 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.679
OPS
▲ .739
154
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +72.2% more
Colorado: 9.4 vs Los Angeles: 5.5
Total Bases (L5) +56.1% more
Colorado: 17.1 vs Los Angeles: 10.9
Errors (L5) +46.0% more
Colorado: 0.9 vs Los Angeles: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +32.0% more
Colorado: 2.0 vs Los Angeles: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.0 6
COL Score 3.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.4 / 5.5 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 4.5 / 6.2 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 17.1 / 10.9 13.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.1 / 5.1 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA Advantage
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
LAA
COL
LAA
ML
60% 97-64
59% 96-66
55% 88-73
55% 89-73
ATS
60% 97-64
60% 97-65
52% 83-78
51% 82-80
TTL
60% 93-62-6
53% 83-74-5
50% 77-78-6
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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