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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

94-59  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Sep 19 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

74-79  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Grant Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Anderson

#56 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Grant Anderson None-None 3.21 -- 0.2 1
Gordon Graceffo None-None 5.27 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.21 Ldr ERA 5.27
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
63%
📊
CARDINALS
37%
BREWERS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Milwaukee)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

56.7%

Cardinals Cover

43.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.3%

MIL By 3-4 runs

15.4%

STL By 1-2 runs

17.1%

STL By 3-4 runs

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.61
MILWAUKEE
3.94
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
MILWAUKEE
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brewers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 STL @ MIL 2 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 STL @ MIL 4 - 8
Jul 9, 2026 MIL @ STL 8 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 MIL @ STL 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.743 ▲
OPS
.691
154
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +48.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.8 vs St. Louis: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +35.2% more
Milwaukee: 13.3 vs St. Louis: 8.6
Total Bases (L5) +21.0% more
Milwaukee: 13.9 vs St. Louis: 11.0
Hits (L5) +20.1% more
Milwaukee: 9.1 vs St. Louis: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.6 1
STL Score 3.9 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 9.1 14.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 13.3 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 13.9 18.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.5 / 2.3 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIL
STL
MIL
ML
53% 85-74
62% 101-61
52% 84-77
52% 84-78
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 94-68
53% 85-76
48% 78-84
TTL
46% 68-81-10
40% 62-92-8
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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